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ACM FX UPDATE 08/04/19

Odd’s on the UK not leaving the EU on the 12th April? Tiger roll in the Grand National at the weekend had about the same odds. Will the EU then agree to the June extension that has already been requested or will they insist on a much longer extension? Theresa May had a ‘fireside chat’ with the nation explaining her decision to negotiate with the Labour Party at the weekend. I didn’t see a fire but there we go. How will the Prime Minister’s talks go with the Labour Party this week and will they agree a compromise deal by Wednesday before Theresa May heads to Brussels for a summit? Your guess is as good as mine.

We are coming to the final stages of Brexit I feel one way or the other. Clarity has to be provided at some point. Cable (Sterling/Dollar) has largely still been trading in its recent range with a move last week up to just below 1.32 the figure. We are trading back around 1.3050 in Monday’s trading session.

You can view the movements last week on the graph below

GBPUSD 08042019.png

Sterling/Dollar has had a slight bounce higher this morning with the Dollar weakening due to geopolitical tensions in Libya pushing market participants into the Yen and Gold. Sterling is very much still to awake after a heavy weekend at the races it seems. I’d expect Sterling to trade this week again on commentary rather than any fundamentals. We have FOMC minutes out of the US on Wednesday although that is the main release from our cousins across the pond this week. We’re relatively light on the data front.

As I’m sure you’re thoroughly bored of me saying please make sure you have a plan in place around your FX exposures, especially this month. Whilst all may seem relatively calm and rather dull at present, in this environment it takes one major event to move Sterling percentage points against you. Please contact our trading department to discuss a strategy and technical levels.

On the Sterling/Euro front, we are trading in no mans land at present. If you need to purchase EUR from Sterling I would look at anything at 1.1650 and above as a good level to aim for on a SPOT basis. Please contact our trading department to implement a take profit order at that level should we have a move back higher in Sterling/Euro in the upcoming trading sessions.

You can view the recent movements on Sterling/Euro on the graph below –

GBPEUR 08042019.png

This week is relatively light on the data front with the ECB Interest/deposit rate decisions and the ECB Monetary Policy statement and Press Conference on Wednesday this week the main points of note from a EUR perspective.

Of course, both Cable (Sterling/Dollar) and Sterling/Euro will largely be impacted by Brexit news flow and the likelihood, or not, of a workable solution that the UK can go to the EU with.

Another week of uncertainty is upon us. Please do get in touch to discuss your individual currency requirements and we’ll help you put a plan in place to mitigate your currency risk.

Have a great week.

Written by Liam Alexander

written by

Liam Alexander

Liam Alexander is the CCO at Aston Currency Management.

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