EUR/USD has come off recent highs and retraced back to around 1.2340. Will the phrase “don’t count your chickens” apply to Sterling after it has pushed higher against the Euro? Much like the aficionado’s of KFC this week I guess.
Sterling has gained some ground against the Euro at the start of this week. We moved back to the 1.12s last week and those that had a Euro exposure back to GBP did well to lock in at those levels. As mentioned before, GBP/EUR is relatively range bound from 1.12-1.15. Could things move out of this range? I hope so. If we’re stuck between 1.12-1.15 from now until the end of eternity things will be exceedingly dull.
You can view the movements on GBP/EUR last week to this morning on the graph below –
Where will GBP/EUR go from here? It will move higher short-term. If you have a requirement to convert Sterling into Euro this week I would consider implementing market orders. This will allow you to achieve the best rate at the best possible time. Please contact the trading department to discuss technical levels.
I do expect Sterling to give up its recent gains against the Euro by the end of Q1. The March meeting between the UK and EU will be key and I expect negotiations to start in earnest. Up until now it has been a warm up. Short-term, on the data front, we have Unemployment figures out of the UK on Wednesday. Expectations are for a print of 4.3%. Should we see a better than expected figure then we may see GBP gain further ground. We also have the release of GDP figures for Q4 from the UK on Thursday.
If you need to purchase Euros from GBP consider locking in some of the recent gains on SPOT or a short-dated Forward Contract.
We have been flirting with 1.40 the figure for a while now. There is no real momentum in either direction on Cable (GBP/USD). We moved above 1.41 although that was where traders decided to take some profit. We have since retraced back under the 1.40 level. If you have a requirement to purchase USD from Sterling please do consider implementing a market order to execute at 1.40. This gives you a price point to work from. Unless you are enthralled by watching rates on a screen all day then place an order in the market and leave us to do that for you. Could we move back to 1.42/1.43? Absolutely. However, as I always say doing nothing is speculating. Take some risk off the table, give yourself a level to work from and we can then work out an ongoing strategy for you. This may be a simple 40/40/20 structure where we cover off 40% on SPOT, 40% on a Forward Contract and the remaining 20% on market orders.
Sterling/Dollar has been tumbling around like a person strapped into a gurney hurtling face first down some ice or as it is passionately known in winter sports, the Skeleton.
You can view the movement on Cable (GBP/USD) on the graph below –
If you have a requirement to move USD back to GBP and can achieve under the 1.40 level I would consider locking in a sizeable amount at that level. Please contact the trading department to discuss timing and rates of exchange. We have FOMC minutes released from the US on Wednesday this week where interest rates and the speed and number of rate increases will be keenly watched by market participants. I would expect another bout of USD strength so do make sure you have discussed a strategy with us for your currency requirements.
If you have any questions please do let me know.
Have a great week.
Written by Liam Alexander